MANHATTAN, Kan. – Kansas State University has been chosen to lead a new effort focused on developing wheat varieties that are resilient to the warming effects of climate change. The initial focus will be on wheat in South Asia, which typically produces 20 percent of the world’s wheat crop.

“Globally, wheat production is increasing at a rate of 1 percent annually, but there is evidence of yield stagnation in some regions, including South Asia,” said Jesse Poland, research geneticist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture and a K-State adjunct assistant professor of agronomy. “In fact, climate models predict that in tropical and sub-tropical regions such as South Asia, yield will decrease by 10 percent for every 1 degree rise in temperature. Given current cultivars and production practices, this would likely reduce production levels by 30 percent in these regions.”

Poland will lead the team, which includes researchers from K-State, the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Cornell University and the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Jesse Poland, research geneticist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture and a K-State adjunct assistant professor of agronomy.Photo courtesy of Kansas State UniversityThe five-year $5 million project, which creates the Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Applied Wheat Genomics, is funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) as part of Feed the Future, the U.S. Government’s global hunger and food security initiative.

A 30 percent production cut in wheat could prove devastating for people in South Asia and other developing regions, which rely on the wheat crop for not only a source of income, but also their own food, Poland said. And the effects wouldn’t end there. Wheat provides 21 percent of the food calories and 20 percent of the protein for more than 4.5 billion people in 94 developing countries.

“In the developing world, wheat is the primary staple for more than 1.2 billon and an important food source for 2.5 billion living in poverty, many of whom are living on less than $2 (U.S.) a day,” he said. “And wheat is the primary income source for some 30 million poor wheat farmers and their families.”

The demand for wheat, he said, is projected to increase 60 percent by the year 2050. At the same time, rising temperatures induced by climate change are expected to cut wheat production in developing countries by 20 to 30 percent. The combined factors are expected to double wheat prices, pushing it beyond many consumers’ reach.

The team will use what is called “genomic selection” to boost genetic gains in wheat targeted to future warmer climates with a goal to develop heat-tolerant, high-yielding, and farmer-accepted varieties for South Asia, Poland said.

“The work will benefit wheat growers around the world, including right here in Kansas and other parts of the U.S. ,” Poland said. “Over the past two years we have already begun implementation of these advanced breeding methods in the KSU wheat programs through support from the Kansas Wheat Commission and Kansas Wheat Alliance. This new project will expand this work on a global scale. The improved lines developed through CIMMYT could be brought back to Kansas as parents with good heat tolerance and the prediction models developed will further our understanding of selecting for yield under heat stress.”

The project builds on research already done at CIMMYT, where scientists have established a framework that identifies traits that limit wheat performance under heat stress, he said, adding: “We will incorporate genomic selection into CIMMYT’s bread wheat breeding pipeline, with the specific target of increasing yield potential under extreme heat. Genomic selection, already used in animal and some crop breeding, has the potential to greatly decrease the length of breeding cycles in wheat, through prediction of yield and other complex traits. This leads to identifying and releasing better varieties faster.”

Field evaluations will take place at the Borlaug Institute for South Asia sites in India, as well as sites in Pakistan.

“This project signifies a new era of ‘big science’ for international wheat development,” Poland said. “The team will generate the largest public resource of elite candidate wheat varieties, along with seed and genetic information in wheat history. The wheat varieties generated by the project will have enhanced climate resilience, combining heat tolerance with heat avoidance (earliness), and maximized yield potential.”